Predictions from the echo chamber

You read blogs. Maybe you also write your own blog, or you contribute to one or more blogs. Nothing unusual in that. So do tens of millions of other people, according to the statistics published by blog indices.
This makes it easy to believe that a particular concept is taking off - if you read a lot about it, if the subject attracts a lot of links and comments. But try gauging the enthusiasm for a hot new topic with friends in the physical world, or with colleagues, and you may find they have never heard about it. Maybe they don't write a blog of their own. Maybe they don't even read blogs.
Groups must exhibit diversity before their predictions are good estimates (one of the first rules of Wisdom of the Crowds by James Surowiecki). Blog authors form a group of early adopters of a new medium. The readers of blogs are also likely to be early adopters of new tools and technology.
By reading a number of good blogs, I believe that I pick up on important trends long before they go mainstream. I also believe that it is useful to apply this multi-level filter:

• Not everything that seems like a good idea is in fact a good idea
• Even if it is a good idea it may not happen for various reasons
• If a good idea does happen, it may take a lot longer than originally thought

Why the pessimism? Change happens disappointingly slowly, on an individual basis but more so at the enterprise level. Many of today's exciting ideas will have to cross over and be accepted at the enterprise level in order for the idea's business model to work.
Great ideas are being developed, and I would love to do my part to help make them happen (including at the enterprise level). A few examples are:

• Less reliance on email as fit-for-purpose collaborative tools become ubiquitous
• Open source tools aimed at the enterprise (e.g.  in the ECM, CRM, ERP and transaction processing arenas) in real competition with established vendors
• Firms adopt better tools to deliver bespoke applications
  • faster and cheaper
  • with better user interfaces
  • based on open standards
  • integrated with email, ECM, CRM and ERP
  • that reflect internal and external collaborative patterns
  • with an aim to make complex processes simpler
• More autonomy to knowledge workers in choosing the tools they work with (as good tools become cheaper and interoperable)
• Increased transparency for shareholders and stakeholders into firms with market power as they adopt new collaborative and communication tools

It has started happening, but I suspect the adoption cycle will take longer than most of us think.

Comments

[Gavin]

I agree with you ,you read about some new hot trend speak to your co workers and they are thinking what are you on about.Saying that Wikis do seem to making a move into the corporate arena what with IBM releasing a new toy.

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